Estimating Commercial Potential

Purpose: To list some of the key elements a potential new
commercial producer will need to consider in a cost-benefit
analysis for their business plan.

Topics:

●   Inventorying your Maple Stock

●   Identifying Mainline Routes

●   Brix and Syrup

●   Start-up costs

●   Land Tax and Conservation Incentives

●   Resources

Inventorying your Maple Stock

The first step in estimating commercial potential is to assess the maple available to you on your land and/or a partnership with others that allows you to tap on other’s land and/or receive sap delivered to you. Though bigleaf maple is the most plentiful west of the Cascades, any maple can be tapped. You can learn to identify bigleaf and other native and non-native maples in the NW through resources at the end of this document, guidebooks, and knowledgeable people. Keep in mind that in winter you have fewer identifying characteristics to help you. The defining tips can be high in the air and the bark moss covered and hard to distinguish from other species. It is easier to do your identification and inventory in spring-fall. Use bright string or ribbon. Avoid paint, you will want to use different colored paints to track tap holes (see “Taphole Management”).

Identifying Mainline Routes

Read the vacuum mainline setup section 2.7. How much sap you can get will depend in part on what type of procurement system you have. The higher the sustained vacuum in your system, the more sap you will get from your trees over a season. When you are first establishing your system, or you plan to add new mainlines you generally want to map out an optimal route with bright nylon string. The reason is that it is harder to move high tensile wire and maple tubing without kinking it than it is to move string when you have to pull it back to try different routes. Slope, tree density, sap collection tanks, understory brush, water features, trails, and many other variables can factor into optimization of your mainline route. Studying other’s setups and gaining experience will help as you grow your system, but because mainlines are one of the largest investments of time and expense in your operation, you want to try as best you can to get it right in the beginning.

Brix and Syrup

The legal definition of syrup is somewhat complicated because it varies between the federal government and different maple producing states and provinces. 66.9 Brix has become a commonly accepted figure and what we are using in this document but be aware you may see different figures in other documents. Anything below 66 brix is not shelf stable.

Understanding Sap to Syrup Ratios

This table is helpful for understanding how much sap you will need to collect and process to produce a gallon of syrup according to the Brix of the sap from the tree or after you have concentrated it in an R.O. The numbers are estimations. Every producer will have different levels of efficiency and waste that can affect the sap to syrup ratio. Also, OSU is currently studying how higher levels of sugar inverts (glucose and fructose) and other dissolved nutrients (e.g., calcium, potassium) in bigleaf maple sap may affect the accuracy of the Jones formula below. Using the Jones Rule of 68 as revised by Perkins and Isselhardt (2013) the volume of 1 Brix sap needed to produce 1 gallon of 66.9 Brix syrup (S) = 88.2 gallons of raw unconcentrated sap. The formula for calculating gallons of sap by brix of sap is:

88.2 ÷ sap Brix - .32 = estimated gallons of sap needed to make 1 gallon of 66.9 Brix syrup

Start-up Costs

As you scale up your operation, your capital investment costs for equipment and supplies will also increase. As you gain experience it will be easier to more accurately estimate expansion costs. For beginners, estimating start-up costs and operating capital needs is challenging so it’s strategic to start small in your first year to gain a better understanding of the costs of supplies and equipment. Some purchases will be investments that last years. Others are consumables like oil and cleaning agents that will need restocking every season. Some equipment will need to be upgraded as you grow. For example, a reverse osmosis you purchased for start-up will likely need to be replaced with a more powerful machine as you grow. In the case of reverse osmosis, the power requirements and minimum amount of sap to operate mean you can’t always easily skip to a big machine.

The PNW lacks the maple industry dealer infrastructure of the NE so consequently new equipment not only has a new product premium, but you also typically have to pay freight costs. However, since it is harder to get maple equipment in the PNW there is a good market for used equipment that you might offload as you grow, thus recouping some of your investment.

The following table includes costs for most supplies you will need for maple sugaring. The three scenarios are an approximation based on the number of taps you have. The table does not include costs like the construction of a sugarhouse, tables, fuel, or labor, all of which could be real cost additions to your cost-benefit analysis.

The list also does not include shipping costs. Many of the supplies on this list have to be shipped from NE states where maple industry dealers are located. A few offer free shipping on some items but most charge. Ordering in the late spring after the NE maple sugaring season has ended is the best retail price period typically. By bundling your order, you can often save on shipping. For example, 3/4" mainline tubing comes in large rolls. It's like a donut with a hollow center. If that is stacked on a pallet the center can be filled with other supplies to use up the space. A 3/4" roll can be shipped without a pallet but this will be the most expensive shipping method.

Some supplies on the list can often be purchased used for much cheaper than new. For example, chest freezers, single use food grade buckets, single use for liquids IBC totes.

Forecasting Revenue                    

In the NE maple industry many different products are made from maple sap including syrup, sugar, candy, cream, soda, vinegar, kombucha, ale, and more. Additionally, raw sap is sold to processors of maple products. This diversity will eventually emerge in the PNW maple industry. This document focuses on bigleaf maple syrup, the primary product in the PNW as of 2025. Bear in mind that there are good statistics on bigleaf maple syrup producer wholesale and retail prices. Currently some producers are selling retail small bottles equal to $500 a gallon. That’s much higher than the average 2024 northeast prices (Gregg):

●   $26 / gallon bulk (large quantity prices for syrup exchanged between producers and/or brokers)

●   $47 / gallon wholesale (producers and/or broker prices to retailers)

●   $56 Retail (prices to consumers)

Note that maple syrup bulk and wholesale is sold by the pound. A gallon of maple syrup weighs 11lbs.

The following calculations for potential revenue from PNW bigleaf maple syrup use a conservative price point for the PNW, but a generous price point when compared to the NE maple industry.

Assumptions:

●   Average winter = 30 tapping days over 3 months;

●   Average seasonal brix = 1.0

●   Average gallons 1 brix sap to make 1 gallon syrup = 80 gallons (no waste factored in)

●   Increasing numbers of producers will increase supply and temper retail and wholesale prices;

●   The industry will remain largely artisanal small batch producers which will keep prices higher than NE maple syrup products;

●   Bigleaf maple wholesale price $100 gal;

●   Bigleaf maple retail price = $200gal.

Scenario 1 - 250 taps. Low vacuum tubing system:

●   250 taps x 10 gal seasonal average per tap = 2,500 gal

●   2,500 gal total seasonal sap ÷ by 80 gal sap to make 1 gal syrup = 31 gal syrup

●   31 gal syrup x $100/gal bigleaf wholesale price = $3,100

●   31 gal syrup x $200/gal bigleaf retail price = $6,200

●   31 gal syrup x $26/gal NE bulk price = $806

●   31 gal syrup x $47/gal NE wholesale price = $1,457

●   31 gal syrup x $56/gal NE retail price = $1,736

Scenario 2 - 1,000 taps. Med vacuum tubing system:

●   1,000 taps x 20 gal seasonal average per tap = 20,000 gal

●   20,000 gal total seasonal sap ÷ by 80 gallons sap to make 1 gal syrup = 250 gal syrup

●   250 gal syrup x $100/gal bigleaf wholesale price = $25,000

●   250 gal syrup x $200/gal bigleaf retail price = $50,000

●   250 gal syrup x $26/gal NE bulk price = $6,500

●   250 gal syrup x $47/gal NE wholesale price = $11,750

●   250 gal syrup x $56/gal NE retail price = $14,000

Scenario 3 - 3,000 taps. High vacuum tubing system:

●   3,000 taps x 30 gal seasonal average per tap = 90,000 gal

●   90,000 gal total seasonal sap ÷ by 80 gallons sap to make 1 gal syrup = 1,125 gal syrup

●   1,125 gal syrup x $100/gal bigleaf wholesale price = $112,500

●   1,125 gal syrup x $200/gal bigleaf retail price = $225,000

●   1,125 gal syrup x $26/gal NE bulk price = $29,250

●   1,125 gal syrup x $47/gal NE wholesale price = $52,875

●   1,125 gal syrup x $56/gal NE retail price = $63,000

Land Tax and Conservation Incentives
(see Land Tax and Conservation Incentives for a more comprehensive fact sheet)

The State of Oregon has tax incentive programs to help rural Oregonians keep their land in farm and/or forest production. Bigleaf maple and other trees used to create food for people can be managed for either agriculture (e.g., sap for maple syrup, sugar, and soda, spring blossoms) or forest products (firewood, hardwood flooring). This factsheet lists a few potential tax opportunities to consider. The USDA considers maple and other edible tree saps as crops. In general, agricultural land tax incentives are greater in Oregon than forest land tax incentives, but keep in mind that every landowner is unique and there is no one-size fits all approach. Get expert advice to help you understand the best tax scenarios for your near and long-term land-use goals. Additionally, a number of agencies have financial incentive conservation programs you may be eligible for.

Resources

●   Economics of Maple Syrup Production. In, N.A. Maple Syrup Producers Manual, 3rd Ed.
  ↪  https://mapleresearch.org/pub/manual                Ch. 11, pp. 1-25.

●   Wholesale and Retail Considerations. In, Maple Syrup Production Beginner’s Notebook
  ↪ https://blogs.cornell.edu/cornellmaple/for-beginners                     Ch. 1-2, pp. 13-47

References

• Gregg, Peter. 2024. Average Retail Syrup Price for a Gallon Goes Up: Sugarmakers Getting $55.70 on Average in U.S.. The Maple News. June.
  www.themaplenews.com/story/average-retail-syrup-price-for-a-gallon-goes-up/521/  Accessed 01.22.2025
  
  

• NASS 2024. Northeast Region Maple Syrup Report. National Agricultural Statistics Service.
  www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/
  2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf  Accessed 01.22.2025.
  
  

• UVM 2024 E. U.S Maple Syrup Production and NE U.S. Maple Syrup Production and Economics:
  A 2019 Survey of Producers
  https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1029&context=extfac. Accessed 01.22.2025